A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
